METHODS OF FORECASTING OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

Ø  METHODS OF FORECASTING OF  HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING
HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

Ø  MEANING OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING/MANPOWER PLANNING

• DECENZO AND ROBBINS,” HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING IS THE PROCESS BY WHICH AN ORGANIZATION ENSURES THAT IT HAS THE RIGHT NUMBER AND KIND OF PEOPLE AT THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME CAPABLE OF EFFECTIVELY AND EFFICIENTLY COMPLETING THOSE TASKS THAT WILL HELP THE ORGANIZATION ACHIEVE ITS OVER ALL OBJECTIVES.

 THE PROCESS OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING FOR

1. DETERMINATION OF OBJECTIVE OF MAN POWER PLANNING
2. PREPARATION OF OBJECTIVE OF MAN POWER INVENTORY
3. DEMAND FORECASTING
4. ESTIMATING THE NET MAN POWER REQUIREMENTS
5. ACTION PLAN
6. EMPLOYMENT PLAN
7. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT

Ø  QUANTITATIVE ASPECTS OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

• DEMAND FORECASTING:-IT IS THE PROCESS OF ESTIMATING THE REQUIREMENTS OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF PERSONNEL IN FUTURE. THE BASIS OF MANPOWER FORECASTS SHOULD BE THE ANNUAL BUDGET AND LONG TERM CORPORATE PLAN,TRANSLATED INTO ACTIVITY LEVELS FOR EACH FUNCTION AND DEPARTMENT.TECHNIQUES OF DEMAND FORECASTING:_

a)    MANAGERIAL JUDGEMENT

b)    WORK STUDY TECHNIQUES

c)    STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES

• SUPPLY FORECASTING:-IS CONCERNED WITH THE ESTIMATE OF SUPPLY OF MANPOWER GIVEN THE ANALYSIS OF CURRENT RESOURCES AND FUTURE AVAILABILITY . METHODS OF SUPPLY FORECASTING:-

1. MARKOV ANALYSIS
2. SIMULATIONS
3. RENEWAL ANALYSIS
4. GOAL PROGRAMMING

Ø  METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING

• MANAGERIAL JUDGEMENT:-

1. USED BY SMALLER COMPANIES
2. MANAGERS SIT DOWN,PLAN ABOUT FUTURE WORK LOAD AND DECIDE HOW MANY PEOPLE THEY NEED
3. BOTTOM UP APPROACH: SUBMISSION OF PROPOSAL TO TOP MANAGEMENT
4. BEST WAY IS TO USE BOTTOM UP AND TOP DOWN APPROACH
5. GUIDELINES SHOULD BE DEPARTMENTAL HEADS  FOR THE FUTURE ACTIVITY
6. DEMAND FORECAST WILL BE PREPARED BY DEPARTMENTAL HEADS
7. PERSONNEL DEPARTMENT ALSO PREPARES
8. COMMITTEE REVIEWS IT AND SUBMIT THE FINAL AMENDMENT FORECAST TO TOP MANAGEMENT. KNOWN AS RIGHT ANGLE METHOD
9. WORK STUDY TECHNIQUES OR WORK LOAD ANALYSIS:-
   
   
10. APPLICABILITY WHERE IT IS POSSIBLE TO MEASURE WORK MEASUREMENT

• WORK LOAD ANALYSIS:-WORK LOAD WILL EXPLAIN HOW LONG OPERATIONS WILL TAKE AND THE AMOUNT OF LABOR REQUIRED. ON THE BASIS OF OF THE WORK LOAD OF EACH PLANT DURING THE COMING YEARS,WORK FORCE ANALYSIS IS DONE CONSIDERING THE RATES OF ABSENTEEISM AND LABOR TURNOVER. EXPERT IS REQUIRED TO HAVE:-

a)    SALES FORECASTS: CONVERTED INTO WORK PERFORMANCE OF THE VARIOUS DEPARTMENTS

b)    WORK SCHEDULES:IN MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISE,FIRST CHECKING OF MASTER SCHEDULE AND THEN DEPARTMENTAL SCHEDULE AND THEN DEPARTMENTAL WORK LOADS ARE CONVERTED INTO MAN HOURS IN TERMS OF DIFFERENT SKILLS REQUIRED

c)    DETERMINATION OF THE MANPOWER REQUIRED PER UNIT OF PRODUCT

• EXAMPLE

1. ANNUAL PRODUCTION BUDGET=4,00,000
2. THE STANDARD MAN HOURS REQUIRED TO COMPLETE A UNIT IS THREE HOURS
3. THE PAST EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT ON AVERAGE A WORKER CAN CONTRIBUTE MAXIMUM 2000 HOUR PER YEAR
4. PLANNED MAN HOURS FOR THE YEARS=4,00000X3=12,00,000
5. ANNUAL CONTRIBUTION OF WORKER =2000
6. NO OF WORKER REQUIRED =12,00,000/2000=600
7. BUT ACTUAL PRODUCTION IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY MANY OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS BREAKDOWN OF MACHINERY,STRIKES ,LOCKOUT,POWER SHORTAGE ETC
8. WORK FORCE ANALYSIS
9. IT IS NECESSARY TO KEEP A SUFFICIENT MARGIN FOR ABSENTEEISM,LABOUR TURNOVER AND IDLE TIME ON BASIS OF PAST EXPERIENCE.

Ø  STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES

• RATIOS AND TREND ANALYSIS:-HERE THE RATIOS ARE CALCULATED ON THE PAST DATA RELATING TO NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES OF EACH CATEGORY. FUTURE RATIOS ARE CALCULATED WHEN CHANGES ARE ESTIMATED IN ORGANIZATIONS,METHODS AND JOBS.IT SUFFERS FROM COMPLEXITY AND ALSO USEFUL WHEN THERE IS AVAILABLE OF ACCURATE RECORD AND REALISTIC ESTIMATES OF FUTURE ACTIVITY.
• ECONOMETRIC MODELS:-

1. HERE THE PAST DATA IS ANALYSED
2. IDENTIFICATION OF THE VARIABLES
3. THEIR RELATIONS IS MEASURED
4. COMPLEX AND SUITABLE TO LARGE ORGANIZATION

• REGRESSION ANALYSIS:-USED TO ESTIMATE THE MANPOWER REQUIREMENT OF AN ORGANIZATION AT FUTURE POINT OF TIME,BASED UPON SUCH FACTORS AS SALES,OUTPUT SERVICES RENDERED. REGRESSION ANALYSIS IS USED WHERE DEPENDENT VARIABLES AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ARE FUNCTIONALLY RELATED TO EACH OTHER. STATISTICAL SOFTWARE ARE USED TO SOLVE REGRESSION EQUATIONS.
• BUREKS-SMITH MODEL: DEVELOPED BY ELMER H BUREKS AND ROBERT D SMITH
• THE BASIC EQUATION=E_n= (( LAGG +G)1/X)/(Y)
• E_{n=  THE ESTIMATED LEVEL OF PERSONNEL DEMAND IN PLANNING} PERIOD
•  LAGG =OVER ALL TURNOVER OR AGGREGATE LEVEL OF CURRENT BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN RUPEES
• G IS THE GROWTH IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY,X IS THE AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT
• Y= CONVERSION RATE

• SUPPLY FORECASTING
• IT IS CONCERNED WITH THE ESTIMATE OF THE SUPPLY OF THE MANPOWER GIVEN THE ANALYSIS OF CURRENT RESOURCES AND FUTURE AVAILABILITY
• EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL SUPPLY SOURCES
• EXTERNAL SOURCE OF SUPPLY IS IMPORTANT:-

1. NORMAL SEPARATION OF EMPLOYEE THROUGH VOLUNTARY TURNOVER
2. RETIREMENT
3. ILLNESS
4. DEATH
5. DISCHARGE
6. ORGANIZATION GROWTH AND DIVERSIFICATION

• INTERNAL SUPPLY:-

1. EXISTING MANPOWER RESOURCES
2. POTENTIAL LOSSES TO EXISTING RESOURCES THROUGH LABOR WASTAGE
3. EFFECT OF  CHANGING CONDITIONS OF WORK AND ABSENTEEISM
4. SOURCES OF SUPPLY FROM WITH IN THE FIRM

• METHODS OF SUPPLY FORECASTING
• MARKOV ANALYSIS:-

1. USES A HISTORICAL INFORMATION ON THE MOVEMENT OF PERSONNEL
2. COLLECTED DATA REVIEWED FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS
3. ESTIMATION OF LIKELIHOOD OF PERSON REMAINING IN THAT JOB/PROMOTED/DEMOTED/TRANSFERRED/RETIRED/TERMINATED
4. PROBABILITIES ARE ARRANGED IN TRANSITION MATRIX AND FUTURE PERSONNEL FLOWS ARE ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF THE MATRIX

• SIMULATION:-BASED ON MARKOV ANALYSIS
• CONSIDERS ALTERNATIVE FLOW WHICH ARE EXAMINED FOR EFFECTS ON FUTURE SUPPLIES
• RENEWAL ANALYSIS:-

1. ESTIMATING FUTURE FLOWS AND SUPPLIES OF MANPOWER :-
2. VACANCIES CREATED BY THE ORGANIZATION
3. THE RESULT OF DECISION RULES GOVERNING THE FILLING OF VACANCIES

• GOAL PROGRAMMING:- OPERATIONAL RESEARCH TECHNIQUE
• THE GOAL TO OPTIMIZE THE DESIRED STAFFING PATTERN SUBJECT TO CONSTRAINS